Chief economist of SEB on economic climate: autumn mood with hopes of a spring recovery
According to SEB Bank’s chief economist Daniel Bergvall, one of the main presenters of the Nordic Real Estate Forum taking place in Tallinn at the end of November, this autumn the picture of a globally synchronised deceleration in economic growth has been clear and concerning – but not entirely without glimmers of hope. Record-high political uncertainty has been offset by new monetary easing.
According to Bergvall, recovery and continuation of economic growth depends on several principal global issues. “For example: can a US-Chinese trade agreement make the growth curves in the two countries point upward again? How serious is the pressure on the German economy? Although currently it seems that stock markets will close this year stronger compared to the previous one, there is a valid question whether it can be repeated next year in a situation where interest rates, the importance of which is critical, cannot be reduced any further,” said Bergvall, listing some of the key issues.
For a country like Estonia, with its small and open economy, the performance of its main export partners, which obviously including Sweden, is of key importance. At the same time, Bergvall is quite concerned about the Swedish economy. “The Swedish economy is like a little dinghy tossed around on a restless ocean, but the Riksbank is still trying to decouple itself from the European Central Bank’s key interest rate policy. The government is spending billions while growth and the labour market have lost momentum,” explains Bergvall. According to his assessment, the factor that will define the state of the Swedish economy and labour market, will be the immunity from falling production volumes in the German industry.
In 2018 more than 10.9% of Estonia’s export went to Sweden, making it our second most important market after Finland (15.9%). From our country Sweden mostly imports machinery and mechanical devices used for manufacturing.
On 28 November Daniel Bergvall will speak at the Nordic Real Estate Forum. The international annual forum will take place in Estonia for the 18th time, and over the years it has hosted more than 450 speakers and over 5000 participants from 20 different countries. This year’s conference will include top experts and business leaders from Europe, Scandinavia and the Baltic States. You can find additional information at www.nordicreforum.com
Photo - André Altjõe
